The Jobs Numbers Were Disappointing. Here’s Why – Morning Consult

Morning Consult’s high frequency economic indicators in April pointed to an economic slowdown.
— Read on morningconsult.com/2021/05/07/april-2021-bls-jobs-numbers/

The Best Job I Ever Had

                

Yesterday on the ABC television network, the entire day was devoted to programming of the Academy Awards.  This is always one of the most coveted days of the year for me, having grown up in the entertainment business and living in Beverly Hills.  I love the stories and the glitz and glamour.  The dresses!!  The hair, the make-up, the shoes! 

This year is especially exciting since the Academy Museum is opening, honoring the legend and legacy of Hollywood films.  I am completely humbled and honored to have conducted the market and financial feasibility study for the museum, as it underwent many twists and turns on its road to being born.  This is a re-blog of an article I wrote in 2018 and I think it is appropriate today.

“About 16 years ago, I got a call from a perspective client, a newly hired director from the Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences, asking if I would be interested in conducting some market research for a new attraction/museum themed on the Academy Awards.  Would I?!?!  I had been the one lucky enough to do the work for the Dolby Theater at Hollywood & Highland where the ceremony takes place, so it seemed a good fit and logical that I continue on to do the museum feasibility.  But my joy, my heart, for Hollywood, no one knew that!  My family had always been in the entertainment business, with my father tangentially involved on the business side, having been a pioneer in the cable television industry.   And my aunt was always working for this or that movie star as an executive assistant.  I was lucky enough to visit the backlot of 20th Century Fox before it was Century City!  I spent countless hours watching movies being filmed, then sitting in theaters watching them roll by me on the big screen. 

Would I be interested?  Heck, yea!!

Since that time, I have been the consultant called upon to do the background market research, analysis and financial projections for the site selection, sizing and operation of museum.  I learned a thing or two during those years.  I gained a deep knowledge of large museums and what keeps them thriving; I learned how an endowment can shrink during a deflation; I learned that money earmarked to never-be-touched has a way of disappearing in hard times.  And I learned about the conundrum of keeping things fresh so that resident visitors will keep returning time and again.  I am thankful that my job always changes and that I always learn, no matter the engagement.

Over the years, we have wrestled with all the issues associated with new development including disagreements about what it should look like, what its mission should be, where it should be sited, who is its targeted audience (please don’t say everyone!), and what’s the best way to keep the project on-time and on-budget.  To be clear, these issues are complex and are made more difficult when there are many masters to serve.  Still, when the project is to reflect the points of view, hopes, dreams, and legacies of America’s most important cultural export, cinema, careful consideration must be given to each one. “

Sex, Drugs and Rock n’ Roll – All Over Again!

Last week’s Sunday New York Times reported that as more adults over 50 are vaccinated, and as new rules from the CDC emerge, the renaissance of Boomers leisure-fun times are loosening prohibitions in social behavior.

This market segment is still huge!  Currently, approximately 74 million Americans make up the Boomer category, (57 to 75 years), which is approximately 22% of the U.S. population:

BOOMER AGE – 2020 ESTIMATES
   
   
   
Age Range  Population
55-59 21.9
60-64 20.6
65-69 17.5
70-74 14
Total 74.o
   
Source:  U. S. Census Bureau, Statistica & JB Research Company

Many Boomers are still affluent.  According to the most current U.S. Census, “Current Population Census 2020,” households in the 55 to 64 group earn $91,687 annually.  This compares to the national median of $86,631. 

BOOMER MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME – 2020 ESTIMATES
   
Age Range Median Household Income
45-54 $105,047
55-64 $91,687
65-74 $74,71
U.S. Overall $86,631
   
Source: U. S. Census Bureau 2020, Current Population Census and JB Research Company

Further, Boomers as a whole are the top earners among United States households.  They own 53.2% ($59.96 trillion) of US wealth.  That’s twice the $28.5 trillion that Gen X holds and 10 times more than Millennials, who hold just 4.6% ($5.19 trillion) of US wealth, as reported by Bloomberg, citing recent Federal Reserve data.

Now, with almost 50% of Americans 65 and over fully vaccinated, older Americans are traveling, attending parties, going to bars and hosting dinner parties.  They are sitting by their swimming pools with friends, drinking fruity cocktails and premium wine, and exploring the world once again. 

Besides foretelling what’s to come when all Americans who wish to get a vaccine have received one, this party-hearty attitude could signal a roaring 20-ish kind of atmosphere for the foreseeable future.  Airline travel is up; retail sales and nonfarm payrolls increased by 379,000 workers in February; and the unemployment rate was 6.2%. Most of the hiring came in the hospitality sector, which saw 355,000 new jobs.  This segment is roaring back!   The national Retail Federation predicts that 2021 retail sales – excluding automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants – will grow between 6.5% and 8.2% over 2020 to between $4.3 trillion and $4.4 trillion. That could top 2020’s growth of 6.7% (despite the pandemic), which broke the previous record of 6.3% set in 2004. 

My husband and I are fully vaccinated.  We have seen our grandkids a bunch of times now including visiting poolside on a family vacation. 

 

Encouraging News From Some of Our Favorite Brick and Mortar Shops

Although these are challenging times for bricks and mortar retail, some are thriving.  To put this into context, essential and off-price retailers tend to thrive in a downtown.  But we want to highlight a few outside these categories.

We aren’t doing too bad in 2021.   Despite record sales drops in most retail categories except essential and off-price goods, U.S. retailers have announced 3,199 store openings and 2,548 closures, according to Coresight Research.  In 2019, retailers announced 4,548 openings, up from 3,747 in 2018. So far, in 2021, openings are already tracking to top each year prior.

Some retailers expanding currently include:

  • Aldi: The German discount grocer is expanding with 100 new U.S. stores in 2021, Locations are primarily  located in Arizona, Florida, California and the Northeast.
  • American Eagle Outfitters: The young Millennial retailer continues to focus on its intimates brand, Aerie, and plans to expand from about 350 stores to approximately 400 locations by the end of this year. In total 500 to 600 Aerie stores are anticipated by 2023.
  • Fabletics: The activewear fashion brand founded by Kate Hudson disclosed that it will open 24 new stores in 2021, expanding its brick-and-mortar presence to 74 U.S. locations by year-end.
  • Five Below: The tween and teen retailer remains one of several  specialty retailers expanding on brick-and-mortar units. Five Below plans to open 175 new stores in 2021, up from 120 last year, and will enter two new states — Utah and New Mexico — as its footprint expands to 40 states. The company ended the year with more than 1, 050 stores.
  • Lidl: Lidl US is expanding along the East Coast. The German grocer plans to open 50 new stores by the end of 2021, with locations in Delaware, Georgia, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Virginia.
  • Sephora: In the largest store expansion plan in its  history the global beauty giant will open more than 60 freestanding stores.  The brand will also open 200 shop-in-shop locations in Kohl’s stores this year. 
  • Sprouts Farmers Market: The organic grocer is planning 20 stores this year, including 10 in the California.
  • Target: The brand announced it is accelerating new store openings, with 30 to 40 stores in the next couple of years. It also expects to enlarge its store remodel program this year and complete approximately 150 in time for the holidays 2021. It plans to remodel more than 200 stores a year beginning in 2022. 
  • Ulta Beauty: The beauty giant’s plans for this year include 40 new stores  and 21 remodels or relocations.

While these expansions may not save the industry, we are happy just to have a few bright spots on our retail horizon.  So let’s not call 2021 the demise of retail.  A wait and see attitude may bring more plans for expansion and new formats in out-of-home experiences. 

I for one will be hitting the pavement hard as soon as safety is declared!!

Trends After COVID-19

We are all waiting to get back to it! 

I have never been so anxious to get out of the house, see a movie, have lunch with friends, go on a vacation, hug my grandchildren, and just plain have some out-of-home fun!!!  Many of our clients are wondering how this will all happen when we’re free to mingle again, and what will be some of the lasting trends.  As such, we did an overview of six trends or values in the leisure and entertainment industries that we believe are here to stay in our behavior as a result of the COVID confinement. 

1. Value for the Money

According to a 2020 Kinsey report of 75,000 consumers surveyed around the world, “value for money” was the highest rated purchase driver, being rated number one by 63% of people surveyed.  The post-pandemic customer wants to feel they have made a smart purchase decision, regardless of the sector, be it retail, entertainment, or health care.  This value is positively associated with digital information and purchasing ease. 

2.  Localization and Ease of Buying

Since consumers are being forced to “stay at home” or close to home, and as distant and foreign travel has dropped precipitously, consumers value easy access and purchase experiences for all types of goods and services close to home.  Again, this points to the need for a seamless online experience for potential guests in the form of social media and information technology associated with purchasing, advertising and promotion.

3. Staycations

Hand-in-hand with localization of goods and services, Staycations are valued in this down economy.  This trend always emerges in recessions and/or depressions.  New attractions that present an outstanding experience will likely be highly valued after the economy rebounds.  Prices must be carefully set to allow resource-strapped consumers to enjoy themselves without breaking their bank!

4. Digitalization

Digitalization has accelerated as a consequence of the pandemic, opening opportunities for the attraction industry.  Operational strategies for delivering an experience for the customer to learn about and purchase admission, other amenities (such as merchandise and concert tickets) as well as other events must be developed and exploited.  Adopting digitalization as a marketing platform with personalized experiences based on the guest’s past behavior and purchase history will be of paramount importance to attractions and retail.

5. Need for Safety and Trust in Brands

In the McKinsey global survey, personal safety was ranked as important by 40% of respondents.  This is coupled with trust in the brand.  Brands must deliver on their promise with a sense of purpose and meeting the safety needs of both customers and employees.  Also on the rise in consumer expectations is the commitment to environmental and social policies.  The technology and backstory/concept of the brand should be front and center in the digital and collateral materials developed, highlighting the creation of a safe and attractive place.  Retail, leisure and entertainment brands should advertise commitment to the environment and public health policies.

6. Surge in Some Activities

Initially, there will be a huge surge in doing the things we’ve missed most.  Then demand will stabilize, but we must be ready for the onslaught of business when the world normalizes.

According to Datassentials, 2021 January report, here are the rank-ordered activities we can’t wait to get back to post COVID life:

Source: Dataessentials

In summary, we believe our post-COVID world will be a different place than the one we knew before 2020.  Addressing the obvious and subtle shifts in consumer wants and needs will determine future success in the leisure and entertainment industries.

When Will We Be Back?

We are all wondering when we will be able to get out and entertain ourselves again!  Whether it’s dinner and a movie, shopping, vacationing, weekend getaways, all Americans are anxiously awaiting the day when we can freely move about with no worries. 

To get an idea of when Americans will feel confident again entertaining themselves, Morning Consult first began tracking consumer comfort levels during the spring lockdowns.

Below is a time series (April 202 to Dec. 2020) of 9 important drivers of the U. S. leisure economy divided into comfort levels of Boomers vs. Millennials:

Because they are younger and less vulnerable, millennials are more comfortable with nearly every activity listed in the poll.

Comfort among Baby Boomers largely remained the same from late November to mid- December.  Millennials’ comfort, on the other hand, increased in the majority of categories, reaching seven all-time highs as of the latest survey.

We expect that as the vaccine becomes more prevalent, and as safety and efficacy is proven, people will continue to feel more comfortable doing all of these activities.  And maybe in 24 months, we will see a normalization of all these activities, albeit with behaviors that have also become part of the American way of life;  washing hands, social distancing, possibility even being wary of strangers.    

In asking consumers to predict when they will feel safe returning to leisure activities, Morning Consult measured a steady increase in consumer comfort with doing most activities through the the summer. Then, in early November, uncertainty appeared to be growing, with many consumers saying they couldn’t predict or had no opinion about when they would feel comfortable with several activities increasing.

In summary, we are still in a period of unprecedented uncertainty. With the new year, and with new cases increasing or decreasing, change and uncertainty is likely to be with us for at least six more months!

Stay tuned, this will be over someday, but not soon enough for many of us!

Holiday Wishes to All Our Loved Ones, Clients and Friends!

The Bensley Clan – 2020 was a Scary and Productive year!

Restating something that’s been said about a zillion times, this has been a crazy year! Beginning in February, I had two pregnant daughter-in-laws, two sons expecting their second babies. Then the pandemic hit, turning our world upside down. How would this all play out? What would happen in the hospital, giving birth with so much sickness? How can we keep these extremely fragile newborns safe? Unanswered questions, with constantly evolving answers.

The first baby was due in April, the second in November. In her last trimester, in late January, my daughter-in-law was hospitalized. Seems a medical complication could touch off a need for immediate delivery. Devastated by the news, she was admitted at 30 weeks. We visited her in the hospital as much as we could.At about the same time, we got the news about the second baby.

For a worrier like me, I had about as much as I could take! Covid-19, the constant wildfires, and two expectant mothers (one in the hospital) made me dizzy with the possibilities! In northern California, where I live, the months of May, June, July, August, and September brought constant wildfires. We had a go-bag sitting by the front door for those many months. Two times we had to evacuate, without a place to go because of the lock down. On one of the trips out of town, we drove on I-80 with 5 foot flames on each side of the freeway. I had never been through an experience like that and I was terrified. We did by safely and headed up to Truckee, where one of our kids and family was kind enough to take us in, in spite of the lock-down.

Then came the first baby! At 32 weeks, she was born, at 4 pounds 13 ounces. She was immediately taken to the UCSF NICU (newborn intensive care unit), where we visited her and the rest of the family for a first look. She was so tiny, like a little bird, and she was hooked up to all kinds of life-saving machines that we were thankful for, and yet very scary to behold! Her nickname immediately formed, Renny, because she looked like a little bird and because her name is Maren. Another first for me and definitely something to worry about! Two months later she was home, a healthy, chubby, beautiful little girl with a warrior spirit!

The second new grandbaby was due in November. In early October, we got the call that he was arriving in this world three weeks early, emergency delivery. The hospital didn’t have a NICU, a department of which I am all too familiar with now! Luckily, he had very few complications and was ready to go home after a several days. I am happy to report that he is terrific and a big healthy boy today!

One last thing, my husband has cancer. The not-too-bad kind, the kind where you die of something else. At this time, he was undergoing weekly treatments at UCSF. Because of Covid-19, I couldn’t accompany him in the hospital, so I had to drop him off and walk around Mission Bay for several hours. I tried not to worry; ha-ha!

My saving grace during these travails was work. Some very smart clients understood that a lock-down is the perfect time to plan for the future! So I was working on several big projects, and gratefully allowed to stay at my desk, no air travel involved. My ability to focus and persevere allowed me to do good work while all about me was falling apart.

Another saving grace, writing songs and playing the guitar. I have written seven songs during Covid, many about my grandkids, and many about the lock-down and what we are all experiencing. I’m no Jason Isbell, but it helps keep me somewhat sane.

This whole story is a preamble to wishing you all Happy Holidays! We’ve almost made it through 2020. We survived. Personally, I have two new grand kids, bringing the total to 4. I think my kids are done, but who knows what the future will bring, for anything?

Let us know about your adventures this year. We love to hear your stories!

RIP RBG

Last week, a personal hero of mine died.  I really didn’t know much about her until she became a guiding force on the Supreme Court.  I wouldn’t be so presumptuous as to say I am as smart, noble, accomplished and disciplined as she.  But we began our careers in a similar way.  She had three strikes against her:  she was female, Jewish and a mother.  I was the same: female, Jewish and then later, a mother.  I would add one more strike:  ambitious.

I graduated Berkeley when there were few realistic choices for a young woman:  you could be a teacher, a nurse, or a childcare worker.  Don’t get me wrong, those are all noble, necessary, difficult and rewarding professions. My daughters-in-law are both:  one is a nurse, the other a teacher. They are changing the world in their chosen professions.  I respect each of them greatly!

But that’s not where I wanted to go in my life.  I really didn’t know what I wanted to do.  I just knew I wanted my life to matter.  I was good at math and I graduated with degrees in Economics.  It made total sense to me, this very objective way of measuring progress in our world.

My first two bosses were women.  I didn’t think that was unusual at the time but looking back, it was.  The first taught me countless ways to do my job and second was rather remote.  She gave out assignments and did her job well.  I looked up to her.

Little did I know that I would not be perceived as a professional by my next bosses, all of them men.  Most of the men in my chosen field as a financial/feasibility consultant viewed me as a sister (little or big), a daughter, a granddaughter, or from many men, as a conquest.  Yes I mean, predatory men who only wanted one thing.  Even if I had acquiesced, I had to be better at my job than my male contemporaries and I couldn’t make mistakes.  

I worked in several corporate environments, many times as the only female professional.  I was looking for my place in the world.  There was no glass ceiling for me.  I could barely get out of the basement!  

I was the assistant to the Dean of a prestigious art school.  He put me in charge of “women’s lib”, whatever that meant!  He fancied himself a founder of the movement.  He never looked me in the eye.  All he could do was stare at my breasts.  I tried to minimize my contact with him until he was fired for some other inappropriate infraction.  Whatever it was, it was kept secret.  Probably sexual harassment.

One rather crude boss, the head of the company at which I worked, walked into my glass-walled office and said,  “Wanna f__k?”  I mention glass walls because we were so exposed.  I couldn’t react, and I wondered if he wanted to just do it there, on my desk!

I worked at the biggest and most prestigious department store chain in the United States in the Area Research department headquartered in Cincinnati.  My boss told me directly, “You’ll never be head of the Los Angeles office because you’re a woman.”  Thank you, Marshall, for your honesty.  

After Marshall told me I would never be head of the Los Angeles office because I was female, I went to see Gloria Allred.  Surely I could do something about this so obviously sexist company!  She told me I could sue, but likely I would never be hired by anyone in the industry again.  I decided to leave.  I couldn’t afford to be out of work.

This company was sued for sexual and racial harassment.  They beat the rap, of course.

Another boss took me to lunch at a lovely downtown hotel.  I thought he was going to give me the good news of a promotion.  We had an enjoyable lunch and as we were waiting for the check he said, “let’s get a room!”  I don’t know why, but I was stunned and speechless.

At a certain point in my career I called it quits.  I started my own company.  I marketed myself as the alternative to the old white guy, all of my competition being either old or white.   I was female and young:  good luck Jill.

One thing I will say about me:  I never give up.  Just as RBG never gave up.  It simply wasn’t an option.  And I never complained.  That too was not an option and there was no one to complain to.  

I was a woman acting like a man.  The world wasn’t ready for that.  

Fast forward to the turn of the new century.  Inch by inch, I had moved forward.  I became a respected consultant, called by some as the best in the country.  I never became rich.  That wasn’t my goal.  I love the work and I love helping companies create new entertainment, retail and cultural facilities.  I have a loving family, grandchildren, a thriving practice, and a great life.  Yes, I ‘ve made it, yes I have it all.  But boy it wasn’t easy!

Today, I mentor young professionals at every opportunity. I love giving back and helping them at every turn in their careers.

I thank you RBG and mourn your loss.  I hope when I am gone, that in my own small way, I am known the way that you are.

Rest in Peace, Justice Ruth Ginsburg!  The world has lost a moral giant!

When Will We Be Back?

When will the economy open up?  When will we get out of our homes?  When can we go back to work?  When can we visit my kids?  When will we be normal again?

These are the questions that are on all of our minds as we continue to go crazy and try to adapt to these new circumstances.  As a research analyst trying to predict consumer trends, lately I just throw up my hands and say, “What the &$!#%?  I have no idea!”

What to do?  We ask the audience, our big database online.  Morning Consult does a great job of surveying a panel of consumers and gets the data out fast, almost in real time.  This week, they’ve updated the consumer sentiment panel regarding when certain groups will be comfortable going to several types of facilities and events.  The latest surveys show big differences between political leanings.  I don’t know about you, but that makes no sense to me.  Facts are facts, right?

Share of U.S. adults by political party  who said they’d feel comfortable doing the following activities right now. Activities are ordered by the share of all adults who said they’d feel comfortable doing them in the initial poll.

In the latest update to tracking data on consumers’ comfort levels returning to certain activities during the pandemic, the gap in comfort between Millennials and Baby Boomers has begun to reopen for some activities, including going to gyms, amusement parks and concerts.

Still, less than a quarter of adults will be comfortable doing many leisure activities.  This will gradually improve as time passes and a new vaccine is available.

When will you feel comfortable going out to eat? Or to a movie?  Or shopping?  Let us know.  We always like your input!

 

 

 

Nimble, Responsive, Proactive, Creative, Woke!

I am not in any way discounting the dangerous and dire straights we are in these days with the global pandemic and how it is affecting our health and economy.  But it occurred to me when I was not doing anything this weekend (which happens a lot these days) that we are a nation of innovators, and that most of the tech innovations and discovers came from the U. S.  If ever there was a time to “think outside the box” (why do we use that expression?  Why don’t we think outside the parallelogram or the rhombus?) it is now.

Businesses are closing down by the hundreds.  How to fix this?  What can we do?  And just as I was musing/obsessing about this, we drove by a billboard on the 101 in San Francisco for Salesforces’ new product “Work.com”.  Full disclosure, my son works for Salesforce, so I am not completely objective, but my thought was “that’s brilliant”  Work.com, is described as “providing all the latest thinking, models, advice and all new work.com solutions.” Some of the things you can do with the new system are quoted as follows:

  • Get products to support your return to the workplace
  • Find thought leadership content from renowned experts
  • Access all the latest COVID-19 data
  • Learn through inspiring stories
  • Extend with guidance from our ecosystem

Brilliant!  A solution, instead of a worry or obsession.  I began to look for other exciting new solutions to our current state and I found another.  The whole movie industry has been turned on its head, with the closure of cinemas.  New releases and summer blockbusters, so important to viewership at theaters, are being scheduled for first run on television private services.  One proactive solution, the reemergence of drive-in theaters!  Anyone over 30 remembers going to the drive in first with your parents when you were a kid, and then with your friends as you got older and were able to drive.  I remember getting in the trunk at the drive-in gate, with some of my friends, so we didn’t have to pay as much.  Morning Consult provides an amazing array of data on topics important to all of us.  Their entertainment sector report this morning presented data from another completely nimble solution, the return of the drive-in movie theater.

This gorgeous picture is an aerial drone view of a temporary drive-in movie theater at the Rose Bowl stadium, known for its spectacular Fourth of July fireworks which were canceled this year to reduce large public gatherings due to COVID-19 concerns. The latest polling of 2000 adults over 18 in the United States shows the following fascinating results:

Results indicate that the majority of Americans (55%) are interested in returning to the theater in a safe fashion.  The bravest is Gen Z, (aged 10 to 25 years of age) including 66 percent of Gen Z adults. Adding to the potential draw of the drive-in is that audiences are 12 percentage points more likely to be comfortable with watching a film outdoors than inside, according to separate Morning Consult polling.

Drive-in or picnic style movies are simple to set-up and earn revenue on food and beverage.  Some drive-ins have even tried offering upscale sandwiches, picnic baskets, small-batch microbrewery beers, and designer wine brands curated by a sommelier.

For commercial real estate owners, business is not good right now.  But what if we thought new:  Let’s host art shows, turn our parking lots into drive-ins (Walmart is doing this!), offer our locations for COVID testing!  Let’s have a “can do” attitude and turn around our dire situation right now! Maybe we can even give our clients and customers something to smile about!

Let me know what you’re doing creatively in your spare time.  We always love to hear from you and right now, nothing is more important than sharing ideas and innovations!