Category Archives: The Market

Understanding Your Market – By the Numbers

Posted on June 25, 2010 | Comments Off on Understanding Your Market – By the Numbers

Analyzing demographics and psychographics is an incredibly useful tool to assist in every aspect of feasibility testing, new product development, and simple site selection.  The process used to be cumbersome, and not for sissies!  But since the advent of MapPoint, almost anyone can do a simple version of a demographic exercise.

The Beneficial Business Features of MapPoint:

  • MapPoint has an incredibly easy demographic feature.  Choose up to 16 different demographic points at once – such as population, income, household size, and age – and  then instantly  MapPoint arrays these features by state, county, city, MSA, zip code, or even Census tract.
  • A shaded map will show the various areas by any single demographic chosen – such as number of businesses per zip code, teenagers in a particular census tract, or household expenditure patterns for any city in the United States.
  • Once the demographic factor is selected and mapped,  a radius of any number of miles around a site can be created and then instantly exported to an Excel Sheet.  With the numbers in Excel, manipulating data to get a clearer snapshot of the type of customers  in or around the site is simple.
  • Radii can be adjusted, expanded or a second radius created and then re-exported  for a new area into another Excel Sheet.  By simply copying and pasting new numbers into the first Excel sheet and repeating for other locations or radii, an instant comparison of multiple locations is created.
  • MapPoint can also find and map competitors.  The map will not only list a fairly accurate number of competitors within a preselected distance from your business, but it will also pinpoint the exact distance of a business from your site, as well as their address and phone number.
  • You can import data from an Excel Sheet, and thus map multiple addresses.  This is an ideal tool  to determine where the customers on a  mailing lists are actually located.
  • Another useful feature in MapPoint indicates expenditure per household  for various products such as electronics, books, food, etc.   This information can also be narrowed to a particular radius and census tract, thus allowing a better picture of how much money people in your area spend in a year on your products.
  • Plus, on top of all that, MapPoint offers a GPS tool, and driving directions can be created based on shortest distances, preselected locations, and fastest routes.  It can also calculate the cost of gas required to visit those locations.

BELOW IS A MAPPOINT INCOME DIAGRAM FOR A LOCATION IN GLENDALE

Glendale Income Map

Very simple.  But you might have some questions.  If you do, call or email me. (jill@jbresearchco.com, 805-640-1060)  I’ve been doing this for 20+ years, with or without MapPoint!

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Posted in Demographics, JB Research Company, The Market

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Revealing National Retail Trends

Posted on May 18, 2010 | 1 comment

Recently, I participated in a round table discussion with other retail experts in Southern California.  Shopping Center Business just published the following article about that discussion entitled “Revealing National Trends.”

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Feature Article, May 2010 – Shopping Center Business

“Revealing National Trends”

Southern California Roundtable leads to discussion of trends that can be applied nationally.
Roundtable moderated by Jerrold France and Randall Shearin

Shopping Center Business held a retail roundtable hosted by Holland & Knight at the City Club on Bunker Hill in Los Angeles.

Shopping Center Business recently held a retail roundtable in Los Angeles, hosted by the law firm of Holland & Knight at the City Club on Bunker Hill. Attendees of the roundtable were Pat Donahue, Donahue Schriber; Sandy Sigal, Newmark Merrill; Jill Bensley, JB Research Co.; Jeff Kreshek, CIM Group; Bill Stone, Excel Realty; Jeff Green, Jeff Green Partners; Mark Schurgin, The Festival Companies; Greg Lyon, Nadel Architects; Julie Brinkerhoff-Jacobs, Lifescapes International; Tamsen Plume, Holland & Knight; Karl Lott, Holland & Knight; and Susan Booth, Holland & Knight.

SCB: Southern California is an important market as a lot of retail trends are created here. What do you get as an overall sense of the market here?

Donahue

Donahue: We are better off than we were a year ago. There were relatively no transactions last year. Things are starting to thaw out. We have exposure to four states and Southern California held up much better than Northern California, Arizona, Nevada and Oregon. Our occupancy in Southern California is even with a year ago, where our portfolio is off 400 basis points. Our rents in Southern California year over year are flat to plus two, versus a portfolio that was negative 11. Out of our entire portfolio, 80 percent is in California.

Stone: Our concentration is in the Southeast [United States]. The Southeast has been better; we have a number of centers there at 100 percent occupancy. When you go to the centers, not only are the parking lots full, but there restaurants are full. There are not as many people shopping out west. The whole country has been waiting for the other shoe to drop. In California, everyone is worried about the state. There has been some hesitation here on the part of people to go out and spend. People are holding their money.

Bensley: I looked at the personal savings rates back to the 1960s. This year, the savings rate is 3.3 percent, and that is down, which is good for the shopping center industry because consumer spending is two-thirds of our economy. Last year, it was about 5 percent. In 1991, during the last recession, the savings rate was at 7 percent. In the 1980s, it was at 10 percent. It just shows you the transition of what we’ve done in taking out money from our homes. That is where all that money came from. It was the spending of cash that was then all lost with the value of our houses.

Donahue: We, as a country, took on more debt in the last 7 years than in the previous 40 years combined.

Bensley: It is astounding. It is bad for retail when people save more, but at some point we have to even out.

Donahue: If we go to what we were doing, we will all be out of business. We have to have a positive savings rate. The idea that you are supposed to live above your means is not good. I’m thrilled we’ve shifted to a positive savings rate. It is going to wreak havoc on our business, there’s no question, but it is going to weed out the people who shouldn’t be in this business. Circuit City, Linens ‘N Things and Mervyn’s only lasted 12 months in the downturn. These aren’t retailers who weathered the storm. They shouldn’t have been in business when they were. This recession is weeding those players out. At the end of the day you will come back with a much stronger economy, a much stronger country, and consumers who are doing the right things. We can’t be leveraging ourselves into this.

(Left to right) Stone, Schurgin and Sigal.

Sigal: A lot of the retail failures were a function of the credit markets shutting themselves off. We are seeing a return of some financing to the marketplace. There are the haves and have nots — there are tenants who have access to the capital markets and the REITs who have access. The have nots are just holding on for dear life. If their debt gets called they are done. California is such a large market, you can’t say ‘California is recovering.’ We have centers in the inner city, denser communities. That customer has continued to visit because there is nowhere else to go. Our tenants are the 99 Cents Only and the discounters. In this kind of environment, their marketplace has grown. They have the base who has no one else to go and they have a new group of shoppers. A lot of people will discover retailers like Walmart, K-Mart and Target, and once they discover it, they will keep going. Our L.A. region has seen no increase in vacancy. We are still at 95 percent. In San Diego, we’ve been affected; we are 400 basis points worse there, just around 90 percent. It is a function of high rents and it is dependent on the housing market. The Colorado market has been our best market. It has been steady…

Click Here to read the rest of the article at Shopping Center Business.

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MEET GEN Z – YOUR NEWEST MARKET

Posted on January 19, 2010 | 6 comments

Well, it has finally happened!  We are beginning to market to zygotes!  Yes, the new Generation Z includes kids 15 years of age and younger.  They are already being studied so we can figure out how to sell them Coke, toothpaste, soap and of course, technology.

I have some experience with the oldest of this generation, which is expected to at least equal the size of the Baby Boomers, when the final cutoff date is established.  Both my husband and son teach math to 15-year olds.  It is very strange that they both make the same assessment of their students, calling them “aggressively entitled children.”  I find it strange because one of them teaches the poorest children in our county, and the other teaches the wealthiest children in his region.  How has this happened?

These kids are treated with kid-gloves with very structured activities and schedules.  They are being raised by helicopter parents, and as such, they have tremendous capabilities and are a bit precocious.

So, here are 12 observations about and predictions for the new generation:

  1. Gen Zs have never known a world without cell phones, computers, or the Internet.
  2. They are more exposed to information, music, movies, other cultures and photos than any other generation.
  3. They can absorb a lot of information, but prefer it in short fast grabs (like Twitter).
  4. They will use their technology, small networks, and innovations to make a difference in their world.
  5. They are passionate about their interests because of the vast amount of information they can access.
  6. They are good at multi-tasking since they often use the mobile phones, computers and gaming systems simultaneously.
  7. Through multi-play computer gaming, they are learning collaboration, leadership and quick strategy planning, so cooperation and problem-solving will become second nature to them.
  8. They will be more environmentally aware than previous generations since global warming and climate change are important today.
  9. They may have more degrees, certificates and diplomas than any other generation.
  10. Many Gen Zs will have experienced unprecedented prosperity followed by significant economic turmoil before they reach adulthood.
  11. Gen Z families are smaller than previous generations.  Their parents are older and most mothers work without the guilt of past generations.
  12. Their parents range from young Baby Boomers to older Gen Yers, with the bulk of parents being Gen Xers.  Many have “traditional values.”

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Shopping Center Business – Retailers Who Are Moving Ahead

Posted on December 21, 2009 | Comments Off on Shopping Center Business – Retailers Who Are Moving Ahead

Not everyone’s closing up shop — these retailers and restaurants have made strides in 2009, and are planning expansions in 2010, and beyond.

By Jill Bensley and Erica Barton

As the holidays approach, the retail industry is showing signs of new life. Buoyed by 3.5 percent third-quarter growth of the gross domestic product, the retail sector may have seen the worst.

Always important to the rebound are plans for store expansion. In fact, 2009 shows more than 250 individual retailers who had plans to expand by more than a total 10,000 units. A summary by merchandise class is given below:

Walgreens has the second largest number of stores planned in 2009, second only to McDonalds.

Announced plans for 2010 include more than 49 different retailers with plans for more than 3,500 new locations. While not all of the aforementioned expansions are in the United States, the sheer volume signals better times for the retail sector.

The Top 50 in 2009

A list of the top 50 expanding companies by number of units is shown in Chart 1. As can be seen, the most expansive include McDonalds at 1,000 new units; Walgreens at 554 units; Dollar General at 500; Subway at 484; Zara at 450 (through 2011) ; GameStop at 400;  Family Dollar at 385; Dollar Tree at 235; 7-Eleven at 200; and O’Reilly Automotive at 150. Obviously, the lower end of the retail spectrum is gaining the most in this recession…  (Click Here to read more.)

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Where’s The Market?

Posted on December 2, 2009 | Comments Off on Where’s The Market?

Where’s The Market?
Experts give their opinion on where the market is, and when it will be back.
By Jill Bensley and Erica Barton

It’s been a while since we’ve heard any good news from the retail sector in the United States. You don’t have to be a genius to know that same-store sales have been declining at an increasing pace, and 2009 is a banner year for bad karma.

Figure 1 shows the percentage change of comparable store retail sales in current dollars from 1986 through 2008, according to ICSC. Throughout the late 1980s and early 1990s, annual change kept pace with inflation and in some years outpaced inflation by several percentage points, peaking in 1999, at 6.7 percent. Then came the 9/11 terrorist attacks and the rate of increase reverted to a slower pace for the next 6 years…(to read more, go to:  Shopping Center Business)

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