When, Where and How We Are Normalizing

Posted on August 4, 2023 | Comments Off on When, Where and How We Are Normalizing

The Pandemic began in March 2020, just two weeks after my fourth grandchild was born. I had just returned from New York for Fashion Week, a watershed moment in my life, something I’ve always wanted to do! That’s how I remember it. And now, almost 40 months later, how has our business changed? Is there anything normal about our entertainment and retail worlds?

 

Let’s talk about the movies, the one thing everyone has in common in terms of entertainment. Theater grosses are down 40% from 2019, as are ticket prices, adjusted for inflation. Our movie product is uninspired, with just a few extraordinary stories, and they all won Academy Awards. As a matter of fact, I got the closest I ever will to the Academy Awards this year, by attending a very glittery and glamorous party at the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures:

In the latest Morning Consult report on what we feel comfortable doing, 77% of adults said they were OK now to go to the cinema. But the latest Fox News Poll said that 60% of U.S. adults felt that Covid had changed their lives forever. Wisdom says, “only time will tell”.

 Have all retail sales converted to digital? Are shopping centers dead? In fact, the percent of retail done online increased from 10% to 15% during the pandemic and have normalized now at just below 15%.

So what about total retail sales? Well, in fact, these have also grown (net of car sale and gasoline sales)?

 

As you can see, retail sales in real dollars, not adjusted for inflation, grew 8.7% annually between 2019 and projected 2023, even during the pandemic years. But adjusted for inflation, real growth has been 4.1%, still somewhat remarkable given what we’ve been through. Of course, government subsidies help out quite a bit. 

I am a data nerd. I get all warm and excited when the census is released every 10 years. I looked at retail sales for the past four years and some fascinating things jumped out. GAFO sales, which includes most things sold in shopping centers, declined by 3%, which is not adjusted for inflation. Furniture, fixtures and equipment went up for three years, then decline significantly, probably due to the fact that people were out again. Food and Beverage stores, which include alcohol, grew by 17%, even after people could get out in 2020. Clothing declined significantly, down by 30%. Did people start buying more alcohol instead of business clothes, or any clothes for that matter? Did we give more attention to making our homes our staycataion palaces?

 

It is a very interesting phenomenon that when we have an “Act of God” experience that depresses our economy, it normally takes at least 5 years to get back to zero. In the case of Covid, its anyone’s guess.

In summary, the news is mixed, some disappointing, some hopeful. I am an optimist.  I think we’ll be back to where we started by 2025. 

What’s your experience been?  How’s your business faring?  Write us and let us know how you have experienced the pandemic and what you see for the future.

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Posted in Entertainment Industry, JB Research Company

Losing My Paper Babies

Posted on July 2, 2023 | Comments Off on Losing My Paper Babies

Today I did something I have never done before, and I will never do again.  I have been procrastinating doing this for a long time. It seemed odious and frightening to me, and if I didn’t do it, no one would notice, die, be hurt or be sad.

Nonetheless, I did it this morning.

I trashed my whole body of work, more than 30 years of consulting, contained in more than 375 reports, all done to the best of my ability and always with care, meticulous research and anxiety.  These were my babies, birthed with an insecurity most don’t understand.  No matter how good my previous study was or how much praise I was given, I always felt I was starting over with each new assignment.  Yes, complete impostor syndrome!  Never resolved…

My library of work was a literal library, sitting proudly on shelves in my office.  Anyone who walked into my office could see the results of the past 30 years of my professional life.  As time went on and the body of past work became more prolific, I needed to box up some and put them on shelves in the garage.  But I always kept the most current ones, perhaps those from the past 36 months close to my chair and close to my heart.  I could pluck one off the shelf any time I wanted!

About 10 years ago the magic of digitization happened and my prized body of work became an icon in a folder that when clicked, disclosed the craziness of technology.  Presto, the fruit of my effort materialized on a screen.  I could store them, send them to clients, keep them in a new kind of library…a digital library!  Those that weren’t able to be digitized were painstakingly scanned by my fabulous assistant Erica who didn’t mind doing it.  (It would have driven me mad!)

I was very scared that I would miss something, or that the cloud would burst, or that the internet would break!  Especially knowing that the “cloud” is really a huge roomful of very heavy computers that could be taken out by the Russians any time they wanted (which didn’t help my anxiety).  I liken it to a fire that, incidentally, could also have engulfed my paper reports and wiped out my entire body of work.

I asked my adult kids and I asked my assistant, “Do I need these anymore?” only to be answered with a resounding chorus of “No!”  So it was decided.  I had to throw out my babies!  But first I needed to understand if all the reports had a corresponding PDF icon in my digitized library.  Not so easy to do, since there were 375 reports to check and four versions of the library databases, three of them in excel and one a list of the digitized PDF reports.  It took 4 weeks to do and involved Erica’s and Charley’s help.

That task completed, I decided again (with my husband’s help) which jobs were special enough to keep as “mementos,” which were my most important assignments, and which got developed into now beautiful, successful, thriving, operating projects.  My adult babies!  There were about fifteen of these, so we made a list and pulled the paper copies.  But then I looked over my excel list and saw so many more that were memorable, and I expanded the list.  I now have about fifty reports I want to keep in their physical format.  I found most of them but had a few left to find.

Easy peasy, but not so fast…

This morning came.  The handyman was coming at 11 to fix a few things and to haul off the boxes of reports I was taking to be shredded and donated to the dump.  I furiously began looking through boxes to find the last few I had not found before.  Yet as I was doing this, I could not believe what I discovered.  My body of work, my 40 years in the business, is very impressive.  It was the first step in the development of some pretty imaginative, ground-breaking, singular kind of entertainment, cultural and retail real estate developments.  80,000 hours of work, give or take, and I had something to show for the effort!  (This of course harkens back to my fundamental insecurity, and my constant feeling that I’m only as good as my last job.)

When I first had kids, I had a sort of overall goal – that I raise children who would make the world a better place than when they emerged.  But going through my reports today, and throwing out some of my paper babies, I discovered I too have made the world a better place… and I am damn proud of it!

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Pups of Pups

Posted on February 26, 2022 | Comments Off on Pups of Pups

The past two years have challenged us all. With too much time on my hands, I asked myself everyday, what can I do to keep busy, to keep from going crazy? With a momentous 2020, four grandkids (two fairly new grandkids born, both premature) a husband with some medical challenges, a changing personal and professional landscape, I was just moved to write: this time some music and some songs. They are streaming now, out in the world!

With much effort, two years of work, lots of help from my guitar teacher/collaborator Nick Simmons, and two voice teachers, here is the result:

Album by Jill Bensley

If you took the time to listen to Pups of Pups I am eternally grateful. It is with much humility and trepidation that I have put these out to the world. In the coming weeks, I will write the story of how this came about, the failures, the triumphs, the tears the laughter and the joy of creating and loving and being myself!

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Retail Trends for 2022 and Beyond

Posted on December 11, 2021 | Comments Off on Retail Trends for 2022 and Beyond

As the Christmas shopping season continues and New Year’s is not far behind, our thoughts turn to the what’s next.  What is the future of retail?  The question is still on everyone’s mind and no one has answered it adequately.  That’s because we are not fortunetellers, but we try very hard to predict the future, in spite of our shortcomings.

This week I listened to a podcast from Dana Telsey, a retail expert I greatly admire.  She always says things that I think, “Gee, I wish I had said that, and so eloquently.”  She talked about the three Ps in understanding and predicting change in the retail marketplace:

  1. Process
  2. Purpose
  3. Profit

I keep thinking about these words and continue to develop insights that are essential for an understanding of the future of retail.  Try it. Just think about the words and the application to your particular product, location, experience or store.  You will find you are a brilliant prognosticator!

Just for fun, I came up with my own “10 Trends for Retail” that are practical and may help you plan.  They are as follows:

  1. Consolidations, bankruptcies and other market adjustments will continue until retail product, market supply and demand are equalized.  They are good for the industry as a whole, however painful they may be for affected entities.  The U.S. had too much unproductive space before the pandemic.
  2. E-commerce and omni-channel selling of goods and services will continue.  These formats work hand in hand with stores.  They supply avenues to sell more goods!  In this realm, the consumer is king.  They have spoken loudly about their preference for convenience and choice. Things like BOPIS, curbside pickup, warehousing and other trends will continue because they are popular and help sell.
  3. Retail THEATER and EXPERENTIAL RETAIL will drive successful locations.  It is time we stopped being lazy about our shopping experiences.
  4. Great locations will continue to thrive.  A-mall location will evolve into even more mixed-use destinations.
  5. The opportunity for development and deepening of our outdoor/lifestyle formats has never been stronger. We must recognize and acknowledge the essential change in post-pandemic behavior.  Consumers require more space indoors and have a preference for being outdoors if possible.
  6. Discounters and “Dollar” stores provide the biggest growth opportunity currently.  This is not permanent. These types of retailers always thrive in a recession.  (Yes, we are in a recession!)
  7. Cause and purpose are missions to always keep in mind in retail.  Millennials prefer products that offer some good to the world.
  8. “Value” is another concept to understand and build into your mission.  It does not mean cheap; it means giving the consumer something she treasurers as she shops.
  9. Exurban and suburban locations supply the best opportunities for growth.  Keep this in mind as you develop and expand.
  10. Shifting demographics and the concomitant shifts in Process, Purpose and Profit will drive retail development.

Keep these prognostications in mind as you move along with your day, today and tomorrow.  Here’s hoping they will help you bring joy and success to you!

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Posted in Culture, JB Research Company, Lessons Learned, Retail Market, The Market

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Are We Ready to be Happy Again?!

Posted on November 10, 2021 | Comments Off on Are We Ready to be Happy Again?!

Yesterday, I woke up happy.  It was raining and my husband was at work, so I was alone in the morning, as usual.  My room looked the same – pretty gray walls, pictures of family all around, and my beautiful nude painting on the east wall. 

I didn’t notice I was happy right away, and I don’t think anything monumental happened.  I just woke up with a sense of optimism.  I gotta say, it’s been a while since the sun has shone on our world.  And yet in the past few weeks, my world has peeked over the horizon to show a glimmer of normalcy. I think that may have happened with many of you, if I’m reading our situation correctly.

“It’s gonna be OK”, that’s what we’re feeling.  We missed so many things in the past 18 months.  What have we missed the most?  Probably contact and just simple in-person visiting with friends and family.  I’m guessing this is a bit like what solitary confinement feels like, where you get accustomed to a lower level of stimulation, of human interaction.  We are an amazing species.  We are meant to survive, under any and all circumstances.  We are a hopeful breed. We keep on keeping on, today and tomorrow.

Simple pleasures.  Feeling free.  Not caring if a passerby brushes against you.  Leaving the house with no fear.  Smiling at a stranger on the street.  Shopping!!!  Dinner with friends.  Lunch at Neiman Marcus (well, maybe that one’s not so simple!).  And taking Ricky to help out with children and other people who need a lift. 

Ricky at Horse Rescue at the Grove

The holidays are upon us.  The stores are already dressed up for Christmas, all gold and red and green.  They are sparkling and shining and welcoming!  This year, we will have 8 weeks of Christmas, and it couldn’t come at a better time.  The sun is rising over the horizon and the year of the winter solstice may be over. The economy is improving; the jobs report was good this month; Americans are ready to share their generosity at the holidays and the Pandemic seems to be a bit better.  We’re getting back to (the new) normal!

Let us know how you are doing. We always love hearing from you!

 

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Posted in Culture, Day to Day Life, JB Research Company

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And the Oscar Goes to………

Posted on October 4, 2021 | 1 comment

Yesterday was the experience of a lifetime. I was privileged to attend one of several days of pre-opening of the Academy Museum of Motion Pictures (AMMP).

But as they say in the movies, here is the backstory.

In 2005, I received a call from the museum coordinator, the only paid employee at the time, to provide a proposal for a feasibility study for a new museum. I had been involved with the feasibility/concept development for the Dolby (Academy) Theater at Hollywood and Highland several years before, so luckily I was on the radar.

When the Academy decided to finally move ahead with the century long museum planning, I got a call. “Can you help us out with the market research and financial feasibility testing of our museum? We don’t know what it is, where it is, or size, but still, can you help us? All we know is that we want it to be the boldest statement ever made on the history and effect of film!” It was the luckiest call of my life!

The director at the time was a brilliant woman, an entertainment business expert and a published fiction writer. She made the job that much more stimulating and creative! We worked with her on many teams hired (many then fired) to provide concept development, site location analysis, market research, and financial feasibility testing.

In all, we did 15 different analyses of multiple sites, configurations, sizes, square footages, models, retail, dining, and ancillary spaces within the museum. First question, “Should it be in Hollywood?” YES of course. You don’t need an expensive consultant to tell you that!

Please note, the museum is not located in Hollywood, because of about a thousand different reasons.

We first looked at the surrounding area of the Academy Library just north of Sunset and Vine, proximate to the Cinerama Dome Theater (closed for now, went out of business). In terms of the macro considerations, and what the world thinks they understand about Hollywood, that is one of the top 5 locations. And for the first five years of this process, that was the site we tested, studied, analyzed, and then amassed the real estate around the site to provide sufficient space for the new museum. This process was ongoing, before we even knew requisite square footage based on market capture, annual attendance, design day attendance and parking needed.

Remember, this is Southern California. No one is going anywhere without their car. It may be changing a bit now because of environmental concerns and traffic, but Angelenos are still in love with their vehicles.

That was the first of many sites studied because of careful planning, management by committee, and economic circumstances, (which included booms and busts, the Bernie Madoff catastrophe with lots of Hollywood money lost), and change in leadership. All in all, the museum cost over $500 million including all the planning efforts, development and hard/soft costs. Not the most expensive museum in the United States, but one of them.

Some of the planning sessions and meetings were lifechanging. I got into an argument with Jon Landis over projected attendance. I got tongue tied in a meeting with Tom Hanks.

One of the earliest concepts, which I believe I came up with in concert with the gentleman who was head of the Hollywood/Highland project, was the “Red Carpet “ or “Oscar” experience, a chance for everyday folks to experience what it is like to walk the red carpet and then win an Oscar. I came from a show business family. I was enamored with the process from the first ceremony I remember watching. It was always an event at my house, with canapés and a hush over the living room when the awards were presented! I always dreamed of going to the Academy Awards.

And my dream came true this week!

 

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Posted in Attractions, Culture, Entertainment, Entertainment Industry, JB Research Company

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I’ve Fallen in Love Again!

Posted on September 14, 2021 | Comments Off on I’ve Fallen in Love Again!

It’s been a long, hot, dry, summer recently.  Seems hard to get excited about much.  But I finally found my inspiration last month when I discovered this place.

“This place” is a brand-new horse rescue operation just a few minutes from my home in Napa County, a nascent operation I visited a few weeks ago to see how I could help.  I am a horse lover.  The smell of manure makes me happy, brings me home.  You see, as a child I fell in love with horses, rode many times a week beginning when I was 7 years old.  I rode a breed called American Saddle Bred and they are considered “hot,” which means they like to act sorta silly and bucky.  Probably from inbreeding.  Anyway, I took lessons and got thrown maybe twice a month, landing on my ass or a few times on my head.  But it didn’t matter.  I loved it, lived for it.  So as a grownup, and with the kids grown and grandkids close, but not my responsibility, I find I have more free time on my hands.

And magically, my stars have aligned!  Horse Rescue at the Grove (www.horserescueatthegrove.com) is a 501 C3 nonprofit, home of horses that have been abused by their owners, many entering the facility malnourished and depressed.  The equine fellas and gals at the rescues operation now are beautiful and while they may have some PTSD, most are really sweet and thankful for food, exercise and attention/petting. They are now available for adoption with donations going to monthly upkeep and care for the wards.

After I met with the proprietress, Antonella a few times, I realized that my role here would not be mucking stalls, although I would do that.  What I saw immediately was that I could put my business development skills to work here.  It’s what I do, helping new businesses develop plans to realize their goals.  In this case, the operation really needs pre-development funding to improve the facility, to secure donations to support the rescues (that now number 7), and to craft a plan to become financially sustainable.  It’s what I do, what I’ve done for the last 30 years.

The mission of the organization is to provide a loving home and safe haven for abused horses.  But besides caring for the horses, a program for at-risk and abused children to ride and care for the horses is also provided.

Plans for the future include raising capital to buy and develop a bigger and better ranch, add space for more horses, offer a summer day camp for local at-risk youth, and become financially self-sufficient though donations and earned revenue.

Let us know if /how you lost and found your passion/inspiration.  Or what you’re doing to make yourself feel better in these extremely trying times!

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The Pandemic has made some art more democratic and inclusive. Techology and ingenuity are at work! The following article appeared in Blooloop this week. “Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel immersive exhibition opens in San Antonio”

Posted on June 24, 2021 | Comments Off on The Pandemic has made some art more democratic and inclusive. Techology and ingenuity are at work! The following article appeared in Blooloop this week. “Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel immersive exhibition opens in San Antonio”

Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel: The Exhibition, an immersive art experience, has launched at the Lambermont Estate in San Antonio, Texas.

News

Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel: The Exhibition is a unique and immersive exhibition that puts visitors inside the most iconic masterpieces of Italian artist Michelangelo.

The exhibit features 34 reproductions of Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel paintings, including The Creation of Adam and The Last Judgement. The production company behind the project is SEE Attractions Inc.

Located in the Lambermont Estate, Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel covers 9,000 square feet over three storeys. Visitors can tour the historic mansion and discover its secrets, all while viewing Michelangelo’s masterpieces.

“We’ve already done almost all of the major venues worldwide,” Martin Biallas, CEO of SEE Attractions Inc, told the San Antonio magazine.“We know there is a lot of tourism here and wanted to cater to the locals – the tickets went on sale four to five weeks ago and we’ve already sold over 20,000.”

Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel is currently running in San Antonio (Texas), Atlanta (Georgia), Charlotte (North Carolina), Chicago (Illinois), Charleston (South Carolina) and San Francisco (California).

“Our aim is to bring you the art Michelangelo created close up,” Biallas added. “The Sistine Chapel gets over 6 million visitors each year. When I visited, I didn’t enjoy the experience in itself.

“That’s how I got this idea. In the Sistine Chapel you aren’t allowed to take any photos at all. Here, you can take as much time and as many pictures as you want.

“We’ve had people pose in front of The Creation of Adam reaching toward each other—that is something you could never do in the Vatican,” he said.

According to the exhibition’s website, organisers used “a special printing technique that emulates the look and feel of the original paintings”. Viewers can see “every detail, every brushstroke and every color of the artist’s 34 frescoes”.

There also are two immersive Van Gogh experiences with very similar names – Immersive Van Gogh and Van Gogh: The Immersive Experience. Last year, Immersive Van Gogh launched the world’s first drive-in art experience, Gogh By Car.

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Relocating City Folk Find Nothing to Buy!

Posted on June 3, 2021 | Comments Off on Relocating City Folk Find Nothing to Buy!

We worked on this Amazing project in 2020. What a concept. new homes for growing families at reasonable/affordable prices! And within a commutable distance to the Bay Area.

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The Jobs Numbers Were Disappointing. Here’s Why – Morning Consult

Posted on May 7, 2021 | Comments Off on The Jobs Numbers Were Disappointing. Here’s Why – Morning Consult

Morning Consult’s high frequency economic indicators in April pointed to an economic slowdown.
— Read on morningconsult.com/2021/05/07/april-2021-bls-jobs-numbers/

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